There is an urn containing exactly 99 marbles, 33 of which are Red, 33 are White, and 33 are Blue. Each gamble differs in what it will pay if a marble drawn blindly and randomly from the urn is Red, White or Blue. Because the marbles are otherwise identical, each color is considered equally likely to be drawn.
Each table shows the prizes for each gamble that you would receive if you chose that gamble and the marble drawn is Red, White, or Blue.
For example, look at Example A, below. In this case, the first gamble pays $22 if you were to draw a Red marble, $10 if you drew White, and $5 if you drew Blue. The second gamble pays $10 if the marble is Red, $11 if it is white, and $11 if it is Blue. If you choose the First Gamble and you drew a Blue marble, you would certainly regret your decision because you could have received a prize of $11 if you had chosen the Second Gamble, instead of only $5. But if you chose the second gamble and a Red marble is drawn you would regret not having chosen the first gamble, because you could have won $22 instead of only $10. Which gamble would you rather play? Click the button beside the gamble you would rather play.
Sometimes there is a right answer as to what you should choose. In most cases, however, it is a matter of opinion which gamble is better.
At the end of this semester, three people will be chosen randomly from those who participated, and one of the trials will be chosen at random. If you are selected, your prize will depend on good decision making and good luck. Real money will be awarded, so choose wisely and you will not regret your decisions. Winners will be contacted by email. Good luck!