Instructions for Measuring Knowledge Part A


This is a study of knowledge about world facts and figures, such as you would find in an Almanac. We are studying how to measure knowledge that might be approximate, and how people know or estimate values that they may have partial knowledge about, but about which they may not know precise or exact values. Don't bother to look up anything, but just answer as best as you can from what you have already learned or can figure out without asking anyone or looking up anything.

We will ask you questions about various facts about the world, about history, and about your beliefs about those facts.

1. In what YEAR was the American Declaration of Independence signed?

2. How large is the circumference of the EARTH in MILES to the nearest THOUSAND miles? Please do not type any comma in the box, or add any smaller digits, but just answer to the nearest THOUSANDS of miles. For example, if you think it is 50,000 miles around the equator, just type in "50"; if you think it is 100,000 miles, just type in "100", but don't type in anything else.
THOUSAND MILES

3. How many pounds of beef are consumed, on average, in the USA per person per year?
POUNDS

4. How many people (including citizens and noncitizens) live in the USA, in MILLIONS, to the nearest MILLION? Please do not type any commas into the box, but just the number of MILLIONS. So, if you think there are 80,000,000 people in the USA, type in "80"; if you think 100,000,000, type in "100". That is, just type your best estimate to the nearest MILLION people.

The next 16 questions are about Attila the Hun, and the year in which he was DEFEATED in battle. Please read through the next 12 questions before you answer the next set of questions. For each trial, answer whether you think his defeat was AFTER or BEFORE the dates listed. Scroll down and look at the possible dates, then answer the questions.

5. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 400?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

6. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 435?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

7. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 449?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

8. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 470?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

9. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 484?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

10. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 505?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

11. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 526?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

12. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 540?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

13. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 575?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

14. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 750?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

15. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 925?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

16. Was Attila defeated BEFORE the year 1100?
AFTER that date   BEFORE that date

17. What is your best estimate of the exact year in which Attila the Hun was defeated?

18. How confident are you that your answer is within 100 years of the correct value?
Very Unconfident   Very Confident

For the next two items, choose lowest and highest estimates of the year, so that you are 95% confident that the right answer falls between the two numbers.

19. What is the LOWEST YEAR that it might plausibly be?

20. What is the HIGHEST year that it might plausibly be?

21. How did you know or learn about Attila the Hun? How do you know or how did you estimate the year of his defeat?

22. Are you Male or Female?
Female
Male

23. What is your age? years.

24. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

25. Nationality (country of birth):

CSUF STUDENTS: Please provide the following information so that we can give you credit for your participation.

LAST NAME:

FIRST NAME:

CWID:

EMAIL ADDRESS:

Please check your answers. When you are done, push the button below.

Thank You!